Weather-Based Staffing and Production Plan

Summary: Friday is a normal to slightly busy day, Saturday and Sunday are big hot days, and Monday is a slow rainy day. Production has to happen today and tomorrow, because the next scheduled production day is Tuesday.

Notes on my assumptions: Friday is my guess, since you gave no numbers for a 78 degree cloudy day. I put it at about 10 percent above a normal weekday, so around 165 customers. Please correct me if that is off. Sunday is forecast 2 degrees warmer than Saturday and 3 degrees warmer than your 93 degree Saturday last year. I set both days at about 600 customers, based on that Saturday. If you think Sunday will run higher, tell me.

Day by day

Friday, 78 and cloudy (2 pm to 9 pm)

• Expected: about 165 customers, a little above a normal weekday of 150
• Crew: 2 people at open, a third at 3 pm when Gideon or Francis are out of school. Roles: one scooper, one register and prep, then add a scooper from 3 pm
• Busiest window: after school and after dinner, about 3 pm to 8 pm
• Production: Gabriel makes batches today and tomorrow (see below)

Saturday, 94 and sunny (12 pm to 9 pm)

• Expected: about 600 customers, close to double your normal weekend of 350
• Crew: I suggest 5 people if you can: Gemma, Gabriel, Gloria, Gideon, Francis. Roles: 3 scoopers, 1 register, 1 runner for cones, toppings, restocking, and cleanup. Rotate someone to the back every hour for restocking and water breaks
• Busiest window: about 2 pm to 8 pm. Last year you ran out by 6 pm, so the stock needs to be full at open
• Production: all production finished by Friday night

Sunday, 96 and sunny (12 pm to 9 pm)

• Expected: about 600 customers
• Crew: 4 people, since Gloria cannot work. Gemma, Gabriel, Gideon, Francis. Roles: 2 scoopers, 1 register, 1 runner. This is thinner than Saturday, so I suggest keeping the register person flexible to scoop at the peak, and keeping the line moving with a limited topping bar if needed. Your call
• Busiest window: about 2 pm to 8 pm
• Production: Sunday cannot be restocked, so Saturday night stock must carry through. Check counts after close Saturday

Monday, 62 and rain (2 pm to 9 pm)

• Expected: about 60 customers
• Crew: 1 person, or 2 if you want a second for close and cleanup. Gideon and Francis are not available until 3 pm anyway. Your call on whether to cut to 1 for the night
• Production: none. Do not make anything for Monday

Production plan (to be done Thursday and Friday)
Reading 1, your numbers are per day for a hot weekend (2 days):

• Vanilla: 2 per day, 4 total. You have about 1 batch on hand, so you need 3 more batches
• Cookies n cream: 1.5 per day, 3 total. You have 0 on hand, so you need 3 batches
• Chocolate: 1.5 per day, 3 total. You have a half batch, so you need 2.5, which I round up to 3 batches
• Everything else: 1 batch per day, 2 total
• Total to make: 3 + 3 + 3 + 2 = 11 batches
• Your limit is 3 batches a day. Thursday and Friday give 6 batches. That leaves a gap of 5 batches

Reading 2, your numbers are for the whole weekend:

• Vanilla: 2 total, less 1 on hand, so 1 batch
• Cookies n cream: 1.5 total, none on hand, so 1.5 batches
• Chocolate: 1.5 total, less 0.5 on hand, so 1 batch
• Everything else: 1 batch total
• Total before rounding: 1 + 1.5 + 1 + 1 = 4.5 batches. Rounded to whole batches, about 5 batches
• Thursday and Friday give 6 batches, so this would be covered

Please confirm which reading is right before today's production starts. Last year's 600 customer Saturday ran out of vanilla and cookies n cream by 6, which makes me think Reading 1 is the safer plan, but you know your numbers best.

If Reading 1 is right and the gap is real, options for you to decide:

• Run a third production day on Saturday morning before open, if Gabriel or another trained person can do it
• Cut the flavor list for the weekend to the best sellers and put the slow ones aside
• Plan to run low by Sunday evening and tell customers early, rather than running out unexpectedly

Suggested split if the 6-batch limit applies: Thursday 3 batches (vanilla, vanilla, cookies n cream), Friday 3 batches (chocolate, chocolate, cookies n cream).

Cones and supplies

• Cones: you have about 300 and Saturday alone could need far more than that. I do not have your cone-per-customer number, so tell me what share of customers get a cone and I will work out the order. Check your supplier lead time today
• Also check cups, spoons, napkins, and toppings for cookies n cream and chocolate

Waste and stockout watch

• Stockout risk: vanilla, cookies n cream, cones, cups on Saturday and Sunday
• Waste risk: anything made for Monday. Do not make extra for the rainy day
• Water, ice, and a break schedule for the crew on both hot days

Rainy day options for Monday

• Run with 1 or 2 people and close at your normal time
• Try a warm brownie sundae special or a pint deal to bring in the few customers who come out
• Use the slow shift for deep cleaning and a freezer count before Tuesday production

Check points

• Look at the forecast again Friday night and Saturday morning. If Saturday drops well below the forecast of 94 or turns to rain, I suggest cutting one scooper. Your call
• Count stock after close Saturday and again Sunday at 5 pm

Questions for the owner

1. Is the flavor need per day or for the whole weekend?
2. Friday number: is 165 a fair guess?
3. Have Gemma, Gabriel, Gloria, Gideon, and Francis confirmed all of these shifts?
4. What share of customers take a cone?
5. What temperature feels hot for your customers? I used your 93 degree Saturday as my guide, and I need your cutoff to know when to adjust.
6. Check locally for any rules on hours, breaks, or notice for schedule changes before you finalize the schedule.